Recently, we have been paying attention to the trend of tire raw material prices, but the recent trend is somewhat confusing.
Since the last time the price of raw materials for tires fell, rubber and crude oil prices have begun to recover.
Does that mean tire prices are about to start rising again?
Rubber rises to 13,000
After experiencing a price drop in June, rubber has risen to a height of 13,000, while half a year ago, the main price of rubber was still hovering around 15,000 yuan/ton.
It is reported that the current output of Yunnan rubber production areas has increased steadily, and the output of Hainan has increased and the output has increased. Next, China’s domestic epidemic will be contained, and rubber prices are expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter. Internationally, the Fed’s interest rate hike will have a certain impact on the rubber futures market.
Based on the domestic and international situation, it is expected that the price of natural rubber may still fluctuate and fall.
Carbon black continues to decline
Since the first ten days of May, the carbon black market price has broken through the historical high in the past five years, and the carbon black market price has dropped rapidly.
According to the forecast of relevant institutions, the carbon black market price may continue to decline under the superposition of multiple negative factors such as the high inventory of carbon black companies and the weak demand for carbon black by tire companies.
Crude oil prices stabilize
International crude oil rose like a roller coaster after June, and after rising to 120, it fell to 106. The price has stabilized at around 110 and fluctuated slightly since July.
Many research institutions are not optimistic about the next price of crude oil. For example, Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, predicted in a report that “with unexpected negative news and stock market crashes in the global economy in the coming weeks, we should be prepared for a pullback to every $100 or even $90 barrel ready.”
So are tire prices going down?
In the current situation, the increase in raw materials in a short period of time is not reflected in the finished tires, and tire products are still growing.
But the main problem at present is the sluggish market demand, which brings about a decline in sales.
In the global tire sales data released by Michelin in May, although domestic demand has rebounded relative to April, the data is still the worst. Data show that China’s passenger car tire matching market fell by 16% compared with the same period last year, and the replacement market fell by 29%.
But now, the reduction of sea freight, the improvement of the epidemic situation and the update of anti-epidemic measures are all very important positive news.
It is believed that after the epidemic situation improves and the market demand is strong, tire prices will gradually fall from the price hike that started last year.
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