Loss! But tire companies are reluctant to down price.

Since the beginning of this year, the tire market production and sales have been so poor. Recently, a research institution investigated the real production status of China’s tire industry:

Tire company

Enterprise A’s production capacity: 20 million semi-steel tires/year, and 7 million full-steel tires/year

At present, the company’s overall start-up is about 80%, the profit of semi-steel tire production is acceptable, and all-steel tires are at a loss. In terms of domestic sales, the overall market picked up in May, and June as a whole is not as good as May. In the supporting market, the demand for passenger car tires has rebounded. The performance of all-steel tires in the downturn of the heavy truck market is relatively low, and the price is low, which is basically the cost of raw materials. The distribution tires basically lose money, the new car has no work to get.

The overall performance of replacement demand is relatively stable, and the proportion of foreign trade has increased significantly this year compared with last year, because the proportion of the supporting market has declined. The company said that commercial vehicles have not improved, and the supporting market is unlikely to grow throughout the year. The stimulation of passenger vehicles is mainly aimed at synthetic rubber, which has little impact on natural rubber.

The company’s current raw material pressure is relatively high, mainly due to the increase in carbon black prices. In the past, carbon black of 3,000-4,000 yuan / ton has come to around 10,000 yuan. The pressure on natural rubber, synthetic rubber and other raw materials is relatively small, because carbon black The soaring price will also appropriately adjust the formula to save costs.

The company’s finished tire inventory is relatively high, but the company itself is unique. Because of the increase in exports and the diversity of order demand, it will keep more inventory than other tire companies. In addition, some factories acquired by the company in the early stage can also be used for stacking. , so the overall inventory pressure is good.

The company’s view on the future tire market is neutral. It believes that it is difficult for OEMs to increase demand, and the replacement side is cautious about the favorable policy boost, but it believes that the overall demand in the second half of the year may be slightly better than the first half of the year.

Production capacity of enterprise B: 120 all-steel tires per year

The company does not have a line of semi-steel tires, and its products are relatively simple. Compared with other enterprises with semi-steel tires, they have been affected more than other tire enterprises since last year. Since this year, the proportion of exports has gradually increased, which is slightly better. At present, the construction is not high, around 50% or 60%, and the pressure on the finished product inventory is relatively high.

Because the company is not large, the raw materials are basically purchased as needed, but it is also under the cost pressure of high carbon black prices, but at present, the procurement of raw materials is minimized. Regarding the future of the tire market, the company’s view is pessimistic. At present, it is hoped that the market will run smoothly in the second half of the year, and the view range for natural rubber in the second half of the year will fluctuate widely.

Tire export sector:

In the first half of the year, the average monthly export volume of 40,000 pieces was maintained, and the overall volume was more than 200,000 pieces. This year, the proportion of exports has increased significantly. In some months, exports are more than domestic trade. It is difficult for the heavy truck market to improve in the future. It has not been digested, the country VI is still repaying the loan, the engineering tires in the all-steel tires are not bad, and the orders from Russia have greatly increased.

Because the overall domestic trade is not easy to do this year, all of them have come to export. There is still a certain pressure in competition. In the future, the price will be reduced by 2-3 percentage points to win the order volume. The trade price reduction is equivalent to depreciating the downstream inventory.

It is expected that the overall export of the tire industry will maintain in the second half of the year, and it should not be a problem if the annual export is larger than last year. There are several positive exports worth looking forward to in the second half of the year. One is the cancellation of double-reverse trucks and buses in Europe, the second is the US Trump 301 tariffs, and the third is the Russian tariffs. The cancellation of these tariffs will bring about a small outbreak of domestic tire exports. , the future will have an impact on tire factories in Southeast Asia, because the cost is much lower than there.

Production capacity of enterprise C: 12 million semi-steel tires/year, 3 million full-steel tires/year

The company currently produces 9,000 all-steel tires per day, and has a finished tire inventory of about 280,000. The inventory cycle is about one month. The current production of semi-steel tires is 30,000 per day. Last year, the export of semi-steel tires was 63.7%, and the proportion this year will be higher than last year.

This year’s semi-steel tire task is expected to be only 90% completed due to the Winter Olympics and holidays. The company said that the overall industry start-up rate in the first quarter of this year was about 38%, and the overall start-up rate in the first half of the year was about 50%. The performance of semi-steel tires in the first half of the year was better than that of full-steel tires. It is expected that the semi-steel tire market will also weaken from July. Because of the response of salespeople in Southeast Asia, orders from Southeast Asia to Europe and the United States are decreasing.

The good export in April and May was due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian incident, the price of raw materials in Europe rose sharply, and production was restricted. Therefore, it is expected that with the decline in the price of external raw materials, this favorable factor for export will weaken. The company also stated that the local all-steel tire market will be very poor in the future, mainly due to the development trend of changing automobile transportation to railway transportation, the demand for all-steel tires that roughly affects 4 million pieces, and the current few industrial activities, tire and industrial development. Inseparable, daily necessities are relatively lightweight compared to industrial products.

At present, the inventories of finished tires of various tire companies are relatively high, so they are more cautious about the purchase of raw materials, and ensure a relatively fast raw material inventory cycle to deal with the risk of price fluctuations. The main reason is that the price of raw materials in the future is bearish. The company’s own natural rubber inventory remains at 4, 5 The cycle of days is about one week for synthetic rubber, which is half of previous years, and about 5 days for carbon black. The good news for all-steel tires in the market outlook is the cancellation of tariffs in Europe and the United States, as well as the cancellation of Trump’s previous 250 billion tax increase in the United States.

Regarding the development of the tire industry in the future, the company believes that the overall tire industry has overcapacity, and the future market may reduce production capacity and replace production capacity. Leading enterprises are more willing to choose to build new factories to expand production capacity, rather than to acquire small factories, so this production capacity will go to Transformation may be a long process, and the entry of some funds into small factories may delay the process of clearing this capacity. Finally, the company said that demand in the United States may weaken further in the second half of the year, and the inhibition of the economy by raising interest rates will be further highlighted.

Tire service station

The company said that the overall economic environment is not good this year, and the demand for tires and oil has been greatly reduced. Everyone’s willingness and frequency of tire replacement and maintenance have been greatly reduced, especially in March and April. Last year, 120,000 semi-steel tires and all-steel tires were sold. Very few. In the first half of this year, the amount was reduced by 1/3-1/2, but for their agents, the impact is still smaller than that of tire factories. Their own finished tire inventory is not high, and it remains at 5,000 or 6,000. level, indicating that the tire demand may be better after the temperature rises in summer.

The receptionist said that new energy vehicles now wear tires faster, the required pattern and amount of rubber are different, and better quality tires need to be used. Electric vehicles have a high flat rate, and vehicles are heavier than fuel vehicles. Tires are replaced more frequently.

Logistics Enterprises

The company has cooperated with well-known enterprises at home and abroad, and is mainly responsible for the logistics and transportation of lubricants and base oils. At present, it has more than 290 tank trucks, and more than 60 vehicles were parked in the field that day, indicating that the current logistics market is still sluggish. The impact of the epidemic this year has had a big impact on them, and the attendance rate has dropped significantly, especially in March and April. In the first half of the year, nearly 50% of the orders were basically cut off.

The overall demand has picked up since May, but as of June, judging from the feedback from downstream customers, it is still much worse than previous years, and the resumption of work and production has not proceeded smoothly. The company said that because there are more and more new energy vehicles now, the use of lubricating oil is decreasing. In addition, because of the Shanghai epidemic, some foreign factories are now considering transferring their business overseas.

The recent sharp rise in oil prices has also put a lot of pressure on the company’s cost side, because the freight for downstream customers cannot be significantly adjusted, and customers must continue to be maintained, but the cost of oil prices continues to increase. Therefore, on the whole, the company maintains a cautious attitude towards the market situation in the second half of the year, mainly focusing on the recovery of economic activities.

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